:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1410 (N17W67)
produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/2000Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is likely to be low
with a chance for moderate levels from Region 1410 for days 1 and 2
(7-8 February). Very low to low level are expected on day 3 (9
February) after Region 1410 transits off the west limb of the solar
disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-2 (7-8 February). Activity
should increase to unsettled and active levels late on day 3 (9
February) from the onset of coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    30/30/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 112
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  110/110/100
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 138
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  004/005-004/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05